The outcome of the event is extremely difficult to predict, but one thing seems certain - the International Moth, a tiny but radical development single-hander will emerge from obscurity to claim its place as the undisputed pinnacle of high performance dinghy sailing.

The event promises an intensity of competition not seen in the class for decades,if ever. With almost 70 confirmed entries,several olympians and world champions among them, the evidence of the runaway success of the foiling revolution is compelling.It also heralds the end of the amateur era, with the full weight of a corporate campaign behind the Bladerider team.

Here we preview the form of the few sailors capable of wining this epic event. Int-moth.org.uk prides itself in objectivity and thorough research. We are independent of all commercial interests and tell it how we see it. We have made the assessment below in good faith and welcome factual corrections or new information (in confidence).

Predicting the next champion is so difficult due to the number of variables in play this year. To try to unravel the complexities and come up with a logical assessment we have scored the sailors with a realistic chance of winning against five criteria:

1)Foiling technique

2)Boat performance and reliability

3)Preparation

4)Regatta experience

5)Killer instinct/performance under pressure

Ten points for each category and a simple total to predict the outcome.

But first how did we narrow the field of 70 to just six, and who are they. We began by assessing the competitors within countries since they have raced each other most recently. Then we scored our shortlist. Here's how it worked out…

UK: OK, we know most about our own fleet. But the situation is complex. Si Payne, current World and European champion is the man to beat. The first complication is that several people have beaten him in open meeting races. The second complication is that he may not be in Garda at all due to the ongoing sale of the company for which he is marketing director. We think it's 70:30 in favour of him coming.

Challenger 1 is veteran of the 470 and 49er professional circuits, Paul Brotherton. His Hayling Island training partner has taken to foiling like the proverbial duck to water. Paul's foiling technique may lack elegance, but he's mean and fit and takes no prisoners.

Challenger 2 is Jason Belben. His switch to the Prowler has rejuvenated him and he has been training hard. Another veteran of the 470 circuit, his mild manner is deceptive.

Challenger 3 is Adam May. The only competitive designer/sailor, Adam was slightly behind Si and Rohan in 2006. Adam has spent most of this year designing for the Swedish AC team. He may lack Moth practice but he's had access to the best design tools and designers in the world. He's built a new boat and foils with the knowledge. If anyone can lay claim to the % improvement title it will be Adam. Trouble is we don't know yet.

Challenger 4 is Sam Pascoe. Sam's the junior in this company, but his strength and awesome foil technique make him an outsider to do a horizon job at Garda - you don't need 470 tactics if you are quickest. If he had stuck with his 2006 small foiled boat we would have rated him higher, but teething troubles with the M3 polyhedral mean Sam's our final UK longshot champ.

Si Payne's rating:
1)Foiling technique - 10 the master.

2)Boat performance and reliability - 9 established speed and reliability. There could be something faster out there but we have no proof.

3)Preparation - 8 otherwise perfect run up spoiled by uncertainty over whether he can come at all. How do we score that?

4)Regatta experience - 9 Highly experienced First won the European Championships in 1994 and has extensive experience in other classes.

5)Killer instinct - 10 The most single minded Mothy in a generation.

Paul Brotherton's rating:
1)Foiling technique - 8 He's mastered the skills very quickly but can still make mistakes. He was very impressive on day one of Weston and will have learnt a lot from the windy races on day two.

2)Boat performance and reliability - 9 Prowler as for Si.

3)Preparation - 9 First year of Moth sailing but he's trained hard at Hayling with Si. All the while Paul has maintained he can't come due to coaching commitments. He'll be there and if at the half way stage he's in contention, do you really think he'll be leaving to coach the Yinglings?

4)Regatta experience - 9 Light in Moths but years of international Olympic class duty. No argument.

5)Killer instinct - 9 Aggressive and super confident, potentially ruthless.

Jason Belben's rating:
1)Foiling technique - 9 A very accomplished act now.

2)Boat performance and reliability - 9 Prowler as Si.

3)Preparation - 9 sailed hard all season and impressed at the open meetings. Led Stokes Bay all the way until the last race. On form.

4)Regatta experience - 9 Been in Moths as long as Si and wide years of experience in major classes.

5)Killer instinct - 9 calm and determined rather than aggressive.

Adam May's rating:
1)Foiling technique - 9 Very stylish but could be a touch rusty in the windy stuff.

2)Boat performance and reliability - 8 Difficult this. He might have created the fastest Moth yet, but it's very late in the day for testing and tuning.

3)Preparation - 6 Commitments to the AC have dictated his schedule.

4)Regatta experience - 9 Long time Moth sailor, Olympian.

5)Killer instinct - 9 The Alan Prost of the fleet. But there are several Sennas and Schumakers in attendance.

Sam Pascoe's rating:
1)Foiling technique - 10 watch the video and marvel. Strong breeze is his forte.

2)Boat performance and reliability - 7 We're not yet convinced by the new boat. Perhaps it's beginning to achieve its potential but we haven't seen the evidence.

3)Preparation - 6 He sails a lot but spent some of the critical period boat building.

4)Regatta experience - 5 The least experienced of our top six.

5)Killer instinct - 7 Ambitious and determined to establish himself among the elite. Could be intimidated in a one on one run off.

Australia: Rohan Veal has been unchallenged this season even after his switch to the Bladerider (he now works for the company). Reliability of the Bladerider is an issue with reports of breakages in early boats. Our intelligence tells us Rohan will bring a second smaller set of foils especially for the strong wind expected at Garda. The pressure on Rohan is certainly increased by the commercial aspect. He's become known as 'Mr ten percent' after repeated claims of speed improvements on his blog. If he has a genuine speed edge he may win by sailing away from the action. Otherwise we think he could struggle with the new competitive experience in the fleet.

Luca Damic looks strong and Scott Babbage is clearly a very talented sailor and potential future champ. Les Thorpe was a top lowrider but hasn't won on foils yet. Mark Robinson (Singapore/Australia) has been close to Rohan at times but not yet convincingly matched him. Great sailors and strength in depth in Australia, but will they beat Rohan this year - not likely. So just one name from Australia on our shortlist.

Rohan's rating:
1)Foiling technique - 10 no argument

2)Boat performance and reliability - 8 this is tricky. The Bladerider has not been fully evaluated against the Prowler by helms of equal ability. Rohan would have walked the Aussi nationals in either boat. It's probably fast enough but we think the Achilles heal could be reliability.

3)Preparation - 9 excellent preparation including a coach and plenty of time on the water. Perhaps limited by a lack of serious competition.

4)Regatta experience - 8 Not as extensive as the top Brits but he is an ex World Champion.

5)Killer instinct - 8 No doubting his motivation. But there's a ton of pressure on him. Will he crack if it's not a cake walk?

Japan: We admit we lack information. But they would have to have made rapid progress to have stolen a march on the rest of the world. It's not impossible, but it's improbable. We do think the Italian entrant who named his boat 'Enola Gay' might want to try again though - not funny.

Continental Europe: traditionally there have been some strong contenders in the lowriding fleets from Germany and Switzerland especially. The French fleet is just re-establishing itself. Sven Kloppengerg, Patrick Ruf and Freddy Duvoisin are all talented Moth sailors, but the lack of competitive fleets and in many cases of large windy sailing venues, make the probability that they will win at foiling this year extremely low.

So this is how our top six rate: